According to new data published today by the AAMC (Association of American Medical Colleges), the United States could see an estimated shortage of between 54,100 and 139,000 physicians, including shortfalls in both primary and specialty care, by 2033.
“This annual analysis continues to show that our country will face a significant shortage of physicians in the coming years,” said AAMC President and CEO David J. Skorton, MD. “The gap between the country’s increasing health care demands and the supply of doctors to adequately respond has become more evident as we continue to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The challenge of having enough doctors to serve our communities will get even worse as the nation’s population continues to grow and age.”
The sixth annual study, The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections from 2018-2033, was conducted prior to the rise of COVID-19 for the AAMC by the Life Science division of IHS Markit, a global information company. This analysis, conducted in 2019, includes supply and demand scenarios and was updated with the latest information on trends in health care delivery and the state of the health care workforce, such as data on physician work hours and retirement trends.
Projected Physician Shortages by 2033
| Medical Areas | Shortage Range |
|---|---|
| Primary care | Between 21,400 and 55,200 physicians |
| Nonprimary care specialties | Between 33,700 and 86,700 physicians |
| — Surgical specialties | Between 17,100 and 28,700 physicians |
| — Medical specialties | Between 9,300 and 17,800 physicians |
| — Other specialties (i.e., pathology, radiology, psychiatry) | Between 17,100 and 41,900 physician |
“As our health care system continues to treat patients during the COVID-19 pandemic, the need for a strong and sufficient health care workforce is more apparent than ever. Specialty physician shortages, especially those that are hospital-based, including critical care, emergency medicine, and pulmonary specialists, are particularly urgent,” Skorton said, noting that hospitals in hard-hit areas have had to rely on a patchwork of solutions, including expanding scope of practice laws, graduating students early from medical schools, hiring physicians out of retirement, and relocating physicians from other geographic regions to staff their inpatient units.
Read more here: https://www.aamc.org/
